2025 Week 18 | Concerns About US Leadership in Space Becoming Visible

I. Tracking

1. Eroding Leadership: US Leadership in Space Operations at Center of Investor Conversations

For decades, the United States led global space exploration and operations, not only as a technological powerhouse but also as a trusted partner, standard-setter, and convener of international collaboration. This leadership, however, is now waning. While the US still possesses extraordinary capabilities, its central role in the global space industry is eroding, supplanted by increasing skepticism and strategic decoupling. Governments and startups worldwide are now grappling with a key question: what alternatives exist in a landscape no longer reliant on the US?

At the Creative Destruction Lab’s fourth incubator session, meeting this year in Marseille, France, dozens of space startups—trimmed down from about forty at the start of the year—presented bold new concepts. A consistent message from former astronauts, NASA veterans, and industry leaders emerged: the dynamics have changed. The focus should shift from commercial needs to national priorities. A striking example came from a Canadian launch startup, which was warmly received, particularly by Canadians in the room, despite Canada's less-than-ideal launch conditions and small domestic space market. The core message was clear: the goal was to at least start a conversation about sovereign access to space, and reducing dependence on the US. Even if the company ultimately fails, the effort signals a shift toward developing capabilities independent of the whims of a US president.

The demise of American leadership has been sung many times in the past century, generally to be proven wrong. It's hoped this time around is another example of 'wrong', but there are some factors that are generated by US decision instead of external factors, which makes things a little different this time. Whereas for the past 100+ years, the US has always respectfully cooperated with its allies (sometimes with disagreements), the Trump White House and members have very publicly displayed disdain, borderline hatred, for anyone and anything non-American. The US and Europeans have been through some tough times in their relationships in the past, but almost always in private. This public disdain for anything non-American, and the very public repudiation of allies as close, both physically and in bonds, as Canada and Mexico, has raised questions from non-American countries wondering what benefits there are to following the US instead of just charting a new coalition and path without the US.

Many companies are now focused on replacing American infrastructure. Whether through independent satellite navigation, homegrown launch services, or sovereign data relay networks, the message is unmistakable: collaboration with the US is no longer assured. Instead, it is now a conditional, strategic decision and, for many governments, increasingly a last resort.

The shift is not merely symbolic; it has profound industrial implications. Global supply chains are changing. Contracts that once defaulted to US providers are now being scrutinized for exit clauses, dual-vendor options, or rerouted to Europe or Asia. Hedging against reliance on the US has become a standard policy, transforming the landscape in an industry as capital-intensive and strategically sensitive as space.

For the US, this shift represents more than just a reputational blow, it signals a structural change. The soft power once projected through space leadership is weakening. NASA, once a central force for global scientific and engineering cooperation, is now viewed less as a partner and more as a political liability. While NASA’s technical achievements remain impressive, its outcomes increasingly feel isolated, and uncertainty over its future funding makes long-term planning difficult. Scientists and engineers who once navigated NASA’s complexities to advance their projects now find those efforts less relevant, as the chaos surrounding US space policy grows. For defense primes, the guarantee of exporting these capabilities to US allies is no longer a given; instead, they may have to learn to create compatible systems.

It is important to note that the US still boasts some of the world’s most advanced space capabilities. However, what is eroding is not technical expertise, but credibility. In a field where strategies span decades, trust is paramount, and once lost, it is difficult to regain. Without reliable partners willing to collaborate, US innovations risk becoming siloed, and its competitive advantages may diminish in an increasingly multipolar space environment. The Artemis Accords, once envisioned as a framework for building a reliable space coalition, have become more symbolic than practical. Some countries are already seeking alternative space partnerships (see below), including with China.

While large multinational space companies like Thales and Iridium remain hopeful for a shift in political tides, many startups are not waiting. They recognize an opportunity to fill the gap left by the US. This is particularly true in light of concerns that, even if the current administration changes, what’s to stop an acolyte of the current party from continuing down the same path?

While this is an opportunity for companies, for the world, there is certainly pay a price for this fragmentation. Efforts will be duplicated, redundancy will increase, and geopolitical competition for orbital slots and launch windows will slow progress. While commercial capabilities once led developments, today, the mere promise of sovereignty and independence is often enough to secure government contracts. The chaotic nature of US policy has created a situation where many governments and companies invest in autonomy not out of hostility, but out of necessity.

Of course, only time will tell. It took decades of reassurances from the US to convince some allies to trust the American capabilities and resources, in order to minimize domestic production (and competition with US offerings). In a matter of 100 days, many countries are willing to pay a premium to get a non-American solution without necessarily joining 'the Russo-Chinese side'. The stability the US provided over the last 25+ years were probably never really appreciated, especially in the growing face of Chinese and Russian posturing in space. The old adage of ‘you don’t appreciate what you have until it’s gone’ may sound similar, but unless US policy decisions are made with more clarity, consideration for partnerships, and thoughtfulness, US leadership in space is in serious risk… baring catastrophic events.

II. Quote of the Week

“A future peer-on-peer conflict may very well bring disruption and destruction to space on the same scale that it would bring to other places closer to Earth.”

Warning from the Space Threat Assessment report, released by CSIS on April 25th, 2025.

III. Immediate Awareness

1 Despite re-entry challenges and incomplete data analysis, ATMOS Space Cargo has tentatively declared its PHOENIX 1 test flight a success, saying key mission objectives like deploying its inflatable heat shield were met, moving European capabilities in a positive direction for future space-based economies.

2 MaiaSpace has selected Poland's Łukasiewicz Research Network to develop the engine for its Colibri kick stage, with hot-fire testing planned at the Rocket and Satellite Propulsion Laboratory Center in Warsaw, cleverly spreading its capabilities across Europe.

3 German space traffic management startup Okapi:Orbits has secured €13 million in seed funding, to expand its product portfolio, enhance proprietary data sets, and grow its team internationally.

4 Iridium is proactively adjusting its supply chain to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on imports by expanding its European logistics partnerships to reduce exposure and avoid passing increased costs onto customers, developing a path that keeps it competitive against other communication satellite providers, while also demonstrating that components for space systems are not all being considered for US onshoring, contrary to the Trump party hopes.

5 Northwood Space has secured $30 million in Series A funding to establish a global network of software-defined phased array ground stations, aiming to solve a potential communications bottleneck for future increases in satellite operators with high-capacity, scalable infrastructure.

6 A recent report from NewSpace Nexus in collaboration with the Space Force and Air Force Research Laboratory warns that the U.S. risks strategic drift in space as China accelerates its capabilities, citing institutional fragmentation and regulatory hurdles as key vulnerabilities undermining America's long-term position in space.

7 China has selected 10 international payloads from 11 countries for its Chang’e-8 lunar south pole mission, with three of these countries being US-backed Artemis Accord signatories, highlighting the geopolitical shifts in exploration efforts, with countries looking to diversify their international partnerships away from the US, partially due to its public treatment of its closest allies and partners.