2025 Week 16 | Satellite Autonomy and Propulsion Open Door to True Space Domain Changes

I. Tracking

1. Katalyst and LMO’s Docking Tech May Not Be as Disruptive or Stealthy As It Sounds

Katalyst Space Technologies’ new partnership with LMO aims to showcase a fresh take on spacecraft docking with what they’re calling an “assisted rendezvous and proximity operations” (RPO) approach. But while the pitch is sleek and innovation-forward, the reality behind this dual-satellite architecture raises doubts about its cost-efficiency, stealth capabilities, and usefulness beyond military theaters. At its core, this system adds complexity rather than stripping it away. By introducing an extra satellite, the orbit transfer vehicle (OTV) that carries the docking payload, they may sidestep costly sensors like LIDAR, but they’re taking on the launch, tracking, and operational costs of a whole additional spacecraft. That’s not leaner; it’s just differently expensive.

Additionally, while Katalyst and LMO suggest their method is more discreet, the truth is that two satellites, even if moving together in close formation, are easier to detect and monitor than one. No matter how cleverly the payload tucks into the OTV, space surveillance systems are improving fast, and twin-object tracking is well within the capabilities of both commercial and national sensors.

Of course, it’s worth asking: who really needs this? Outside of high-stakes conflict zones, where such maneuverability and redundancy might be advantageous, the use cases are vague. Commercial demand for mid-sized, semi-stealthy docking services remains theoretical at best. This tech might be a solution, but so far, it seems like it’s still searching for a real-world problem. Investors are moving forward in the hopes that this will be a requested capability, but even the US government has been reluctant to be the single source of funding for these sorts of technologies, acknowledging that the demand from the private sector is just too small at this current time.

The saving grace for the companies may be in the modularity argument: a plug-and-play model for satellite servicing, upgrades, or modular expansion, may drive future satellite developers to consider this sort of infrastructure. This will be considered only if Katalyst and LMO are around, which creates a ‘chicken-and-egg’ problem of which should come first: the product or the requirement? Of course, for large scale constellations, especially in LEO, the name of the game remains lowering costs through mass production. If it’s LEO, satellite operators already know they’ll launch a constellation of new satellites in five to ten years, so modularity isn’t really a need. This indicates that Katalyst and LMO will most likely remain above LEO, where hopefully they can find some interested customers.

Source of original story: Katalyst Space

2. Beyond Forecasts: Why Resilient Satellite Design Matters More Than Space Weather Predictions

Recently, industry stakeholders have renewed conversations around the need for improved space weather forecasting. While forecasting can be helpful, the concept of forecast-use to inform decisions in a similar way to aviation operations or even your day-to-day life remains an imperfect tool, particularly for spacecraft already in orbit.

The idea that satellites can simply avoid space weather events to extend their operational life is somewhat misleading. It’s true that dodging a solar storm or a radiation spike can help reduce immediate damage, but it doesn't address the underlying issue. Even with advanced notice, a spacecraft’s lifespan may still be shortened, often by as much as 40%. This is because to address the space weather challenges, it often involves using propulsion systems and therefore, the limited, non-replenishable fuel reserves aboard the spacecraft. Or it may mean stopping the mission temporarily, costing revenue dollars. Obviously, while 40% is better than 80%, the operator is still faced with unexpected costs and logistical challenges. In low Earth orbit (LEO) and very low Earth orbit (VLEO), there are rarely second chances. When a satellite fails, the mission ends; extending the mission means launching a new satellite.

Forecasting events days or even weeks in advance doesn’t fundamentally solve this. It can actually distract from the core problem: the need to build more resilient satellites that are prepared for the harsh space environment from the outset. The operational edge gained from short-term forecasting is limited, especially when compared to the benefits of robust design.

Even if forecasting capabilities extended to months in advance, the current satellite development and manufacturing processes leave little room to react meaningfully. This is especially true for large-scale operators like SpaceX’s Starlink or OneWeb, whose manufacturing is optimized for mass production. Supply chains and hardware designs are fixed well in advance, and altering them mid-cycle introduces delays and cost overruns.

In theory, integrating space weather data early in the design phase could allow engineers to better prepare for expected conditions. They could reinforce shielding or modify power systems, for instance. But in practice, such adjustments come with trade-offs. Additional shielding increases mass and launch costs, and modifying onboard systems can reduce payload capacity or introduce delays. These factors significantly affect mission economics and must be weighed carefully.

The final concern comes down to which entity provides this space weather forecast, whether long or short term. Small startups in France have tried to sell space weather data and insights, but unfortunately failed to raise sufficient funds. While the failure can be attributed to a myriad of reasons, it’s important to remember that commercial providers continue to compete directly with free data collection and modeling services provided by governments, including the US government via NASA, the US Air Force, NOAA, and other national entities such as the ESA, JAXA, SANSA, and others. Most of this government data is provided by fleets of government satellites and sensors located both in space, on Earth and even around other planets. Models, built on piles of data form sensors across various orbits, are critical, however most customer-dollars for any commercial company will continue to come from governments.

Ultimately, the greatest value of space weather forecasting lies not in daily operations, but in long-term strategic planning. Designers should consider the full range of space weather conditions a satellite may encounter over its lifespan and build with those risks in mind. By designing to withstand the extremes, not just reacting to individual events, operators can better manage risk and reduce unplanned mission disruptions. Unlike aviation and other industries, space systems have always had to be designed for the most extreme environments from day one.

II. Quote of the Week

“These cuts will certainly result in the loss of American leadership in science.”

Dara Norman, president of the American Astronomical Society, in response to the proposed NASA budget put forth by the Trump White House.

III. Immediate Awareness

1 NanoAvionics has secured a €122.5 million contract from U.S.-based SpinLaunch to develop an initial 282 satellites for the Meridian Space broadband constellation, allowing SpinLaunch to diversify from its unique launch system while also demonstrating continued international cooperation despite the geopolitical tensions.

2 Indirect confirmations from employee LinkedIn profiles, and MaiaSpace’s involvement as a subcontractor seem to indicate ArianeGroup's SkyHopper overlaps partially with its Themis project, indicating ArianeGroup’s continued push to modernize and accelerate its capabilities in the face of stiff, international competition.

3 ALTEC has been awarded a €61 million contract by the European Space Agency to provide training, logistics, and operations support for the European modules of the International Space Station and the Gateway space station from 2025 to 2029.

4 In the crowded launch vehicle sector, French startup Latitude has successfully completed a 10-second hot fire test of the flight-ready combustion chamber for its Navier engine, a key component of the Zephyr launch vehicle, at its Titan testing center in Vatry, France.

5 The Italian government has initiated Phase 2 of a feasibility study to develop a 100-satellite low Earth orbit constellation aimed at secure communications, with the Italian Space Agency (ASI) assessing national industry capabilities, and further demonstrating a reluctance to trust the traditional provider of such services, the United States.

6 The Trump administration's fiscal year 2026 budget proposal for NOAA suggests significant restructuring of its space-related programs, including major changes to the Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) weather satellite program and the transfer of space weather and space traffic management responsibilities.